Circadian rhythm sketch

(© Rudzhan - stock.adobe.com)

Stanford Models Predict Fewer Strokes and Obesity Cases Under Standard Time

In A Nutshell

  • Stanford models predict fewer obesity and stroke cases under permanent Standard Time.
  • Biannual clock changes produce the highest “circadian burden” in nearly all counties.
  • Intermediate and late chronotypes benefit most from Standard Time.
  • Medical groups already favor Standard Time, but real-world behavior adds uncertainty.

STANFORD, Calif. — For over a century, Americans have reset their clocks twice a year. A new Stanford University study suggests this routine carries health costs that go beyond a few groggy mornings. According to computer models, adopting permanent Standard Time could predictably reduce obesity and stroke cases across the country.

Researchers estimate that switching permanently to Standard Time could lower obesity prevalence by 0.78% (about 2.6 million fewer cases nationwide) and reduce strokes by 0.09%, or roughly 307,000 cases. Even permanent Daylight Saving Time would bring benefits, though smaller.

These are not direct counts of patients but projections from mathematical models that connect light exposure, circadian rhythms, and health outcomes. Still, even modest percentage shifts matter at scale.

How Daylight Saving Time Affects Your Body

Bioengineer Lara Weeda and psychiatrist Jamie M. Zeitzer set out to test a longstanding question: beyond the short-term spikes in heart attacks after “springing forward,” how do different time policies shape long-term health?

They modeled light exposure for every county in the continental United States under three scenarios: permanent Standard Time, permanent Daylight Saving Time, and the current system of biannual switching. These data fed into established models of human circadian rhythms, the body’s internal clock that governs sleep, metabolism, and cardiovascular function.

Geography matters. Counties on the western edge of a time zone face later sunrises and greater circadian strain than those on the eastern edge. Northern counties contend with sharper seasonal swings than southern ones.

Chronotype, or the tendency to be a “morning person” or “night owl,” also shapes outcomes. The study found that, when comparing Standard Time to Daylight Saving Time, 82% of counties showed lower circadian burden for people with intermediate chronotypes, 61% for evening types, and just 16% for early types. In practice, because most people fall in the intermediate group, the models suggest Standard Time benefits the largest share of the population overall.

Woman hitting snooze button on alarm clock after waking up so she can sleep longer
Changing the clocks twice each year puts more strain on our circadian rhythms than we might realize. (© Elenathewise – stock.adobe.com)

Measuring the Burden of Clock Shifts

To capture the strain of mismatched schedules, the researchers assessed what they call circadian burden. It reflects how much work the body’s clock must do to stay aligned with external time. Under the current system of twice-yearly changes, circadian burden is highest in almost every county.

The team compared these estimates with county-level health data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. After accounting for age, income, and other health influences, the models predicted links between circadian burden and two outcomes: obesity and stroke.

Other conditions tested, such as diabetes and cancer, showed no significant association in this modeling. That selectivity strengthens the idea that disrupted biological rhythms may play a meaningful role in specific pathways: metabolism for obesity, and vascular health for stroke.

It is important to stress that the study does not claim causation. The results are projections based on idealized light exposure and standard schedules. Real life, with irregular sleep patterns and heavy indoor living, is much more complex.

What Medical Groups Already Recommend

Leading medical organizations, including the American Academy of Sleep Medicine, the American Medical Association, and the Sleep Research Society, already support permanent Standard Time. Their stance comes from evidence that morning light is beneficial for circadian health.

What the Stanford study adds is a set of quantitative, national-scale estimates. Rather than relying only on theory, policymakers now have numbers to consider, showing how different time choices might influence health at the population level.

Still, the authors caution that their models do not capture every influence. Behavior, economics, and social patterns could shift the actual outcomes. For example, people may continue to delay sleep for lifestyle reasons even if clock policies align more closely with solar time.

Why the Policy Debate Matters

Arguments about daylight saving time often center on lifestyle: more evening light for recreation versus brighter mornings for commuting. This research, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, shifts the discussion toward health.

The models suggest that ending biannual clock changes could predictably reduce millions of cases of obesity and hundreds of thousands of strokes in the continental United States. The strongest benefits come from Standard Time, though permanent Daylight Saving Time is still predicted to be healthier than the current switch-back system.

Arizona and Hawaii already skip clock changes, with most Arizona counties on permanent Standard Time. The Navajo Nation, which does not map neatly onto county lines, continues to observe biannual switching. For the rest of the country, the policy choice carries measurable stakes for public health.

Disclaimer: This article is for general information only and should not be taken as medical advice. For personal health concerns, consult a qualified professional.


Paper Summary

Methodology

Researchers simulated light exposure patterns across all continental U.S. counties under three time policies: permanent Standard Time, permanent Daylight Saving Time, and biannual switching. They used county data on latitude, longitude, population, and time zones to model solar exposure throughout the year, assuming regular work and sleep schedules. These light patterns were fed into circadian rhythm models to calculate yearly “circadian burden”—the degree to which the body’s clock must shift to stay synchronized. The team then compared these estimates to CDC county health data, adjusting for age, socioeconomic status, and other health determinants.

Results

Compared with the current biannual switching system, permanent Standard Time was predicted to reduce obesity prevalence by 0.78% (about 2.6 million fewer cases) and stroke prevalence by 0.09% (about 307,000 fewer cases). Permanent Daylight Saving Time also improved outcomes, though less dramatically: 0.51% lower obesity (1.7 million fewer cases) and 0.07% lower stroke prevalence (220,000 fewer cases). The current system produced the highest circadian burden in over 95% of counties. Geography and chronotype both influenced outcomes.

Limitations

The study modeled idealized light and sleep patterns, not the irregular reality of modern life. It focused only on circadian-related health impacts, leaving out possible economic, behavioral, or social effects of time policy. Findings apply only to the continental United States. The distribution of chronotypes within counties was not measured directly, which could affect accuracy.

Funding and Disclosures

Research was supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health (Award No. F31HL170715). Computing was performed on Stanford University’s Sherlock cluster. The authors declared no competing interests.

Publication Information

The paper appears in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), accepted in 2025. Authors: Lara Weed, Department of Bioengineering, and Jamie M. Zeitzer, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, both at Stanford University. Edited by Ying-Hui Fu, University of California, San Francisco. Received April 7, 2025; accepted July 31, 2025.

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2 Comments

  1. Michael Kirkby says:

    I’m all in favor of doing away with DST.

  2. New_view says:

    We should ban travel out of time zone where you reside. That must be killing millions.