Cooking bacon in a skillet is perhaps the most traditional and most delicious way to prepare your breakfast side dish. (Photo by Michelle @Shelly Captures It on Unsplash)
EDINBURGH, Scotland — Processed meats like bacon and sausage are delicious staples of many American breakfasts nationwide, but they have also been connected to severe disease. While completely avoiding these foods is off the menu for plenty of carnivores, a new study finds just cutting back a little can have an unbelievable impact on the nation’s health.
Researchers from the University of Edinburgh estimate that if Americans cut their processed meat intake by just 30%, it could lead to nearly 353,000 fewer cases of Type 2 diabetes, 92,500 fewer cases of cardiovascular disease, and 53,300 fewer cases of colorectal cancer over 10 years. That’s roughly the equivalent of cutting out 10 slices of bacon each week.
The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, used computer modeling to simulate how cutting back on processed and unprocessed red meat to various degrees would impact public health in the U.S. While the findings were particularly striking for processed meats like bacon, hot dogs, and deli meats, the researchers also found potential benefits from limited unprocessed red meat intake.
“Cutting consumption of meat has been recommended by national and international organizations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including the Climate Change Committee here in the UK and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC. Our research finds that these changes in diets could also have significant health benefits in the US, and so this is a clear win-win for people and the planet,” says Professor Lindsay Jaacks, Personal Chair of Global Health and Nutrition at the University of Edinburgh, in a media release.
Methodology: How They Crunched the Numbers
To estimate the health impacts of lowering processed meat consumption, the researchers developed a computer model they called micro-Simulation of the Health Impacts of Food Transformations (mSHIFT). Here’s how it worked:
- Scientists used data from national health surveys to create a simulated U.S. adult population of over 242 million people.
- The model estimated each person’s baseline risk for developing Type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and colorectal cancer based on factors like age, weight, and blood pressure.
- Then, mSHIFT calculated how those risks would change if people reduced their meat consumption by various amounts (5%, 10%, 30%, etc.).
- The simulation was run repeatedly over a 10-year period to estimate prevented disease cases and deaths compared to no change in meat intake.
The model accounted for differences across demographic groups and incorporated data on current meat consumption patterns in the US. On average, Americans eat about 29 grams of processed meat and 47 grams of unprocessed red meat daily.
Key Results
The researchers looked at several scenarios but focused on a 30% reduction in meat intake as a potentially achievable target. Here are the key findings for a 30% cut in processed meat consumption over 10 years:
- 352,900 fewer cases of Type 2 diabetes
- 92,500 fewer cases of cardiovascular disease
- 53,300 fewer cases of colorectal cancer
- 16,700 fewer deaths from all causes
For unprocessed red meat, a 30% reduction was estimated to prevent:
- 732,600 cases of Type 2 diabetes
- 291,500 cases of cardiovascular disease
- 32,200 cases of colorectal cancer
- 46,100 deaths from all causes
Combining both types of meat, the study estimates that a 30% reduction could prevent over one million cases of Type 2 diabetes, 382,000 cases of cardiovascular disease, and 84,000 cases of colorectal cancer.
The health benefits appear to be greater for men, who consume more meat than women on average. In the processed meat reduction scenario, men accounted for 55% of prevented diabetes cases and 62% of prevented colorectal cancer cases.
Discussion & Takeaways
The researchers emphasize that their findings on processed meat align with existing evidence linking these foods to chronic diseases. The International Agency for Research on Cancer has classified processed meat as carcinogenic, putting it in the same category as tobacco and asbestos.
However, they note there’s more uncertainty around the health effects of unprocessed red meat. Some studies have found associations with chronic diseases, while others haven’t shown clear links, particularly when red meat is consumed as part of a generally healthy diet.
The researchers recommend that the upcoming 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans consider specifically advising people to limit processed meat intake. This could have widespread implications, as these guidelines inform federal food policies and nutrition education efforts. So, if you’re looking to take these findings to heart, there’s an easy way to start taking your processed meat intake seriously. When breakfast comes, and there are three pieces of bacon on the plate, leave one behind every time. That goes for the sausages, too!
